* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 32 37 42 45 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 32 37 42 45 48 50 52 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 14 10 9 11 7 7 9 9 11 11 14 SHEAR DIR 90 97 107 97 98 124 97 110 46 106 50 83 60 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 141 141 143 142 145 149 149 148 149 151 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 41 41 38 42 44 46 53 54 59 57 59 52 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 850 MB VORT 33 28 30 28 28 23 20 21 31 29 25 11 5 LAND (KM) 1497 1511 1502 1417 1337 1158 985 805 690 666 582 396 259 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.4 39.4 40.5 41.5 43.8 46.3 48.9 51.5 53.7 55.7 57.8 60.2 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 22 21 25 39 41 44 70 70 66 71 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 29. 31. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.27 Prob of RI= 15.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)