* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 90 93 93 88 79 65 53 41 34 27 22 V (KT) LAND 85 87 90 93 93 52 35 29 28 28 28 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 13 10 20 25 23 26 18 25 19 21 11 SHEAR DIR 259 219 222 208 197 235 217 247 251 275 277 300 285 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 26.8 23.5 21.7 20.8 20.8 21.2 22.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 148 148 146 127 100 91 87 87 88 94 98 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -49.3 -49.6 -49.0 -49.0 -49.6 -49.5 -49.5 -49.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 12 10 10 6 8 2 7 5 8 3 6 500-300 MB RH 62 59 55 54 62 54 54 44 41 41 36 42 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 8 8 12 1 13 -4 13 15 3 -8 1 850 MB VORT 52 58 50 41 65 24 37 -7 45 59 94 90 115 LAND (KM) 253 253 257 148 61 -191 -442 -596 -686 -756 -846 -773 -553 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 32.4 34.5 35.9 36.8 37.5 38.3 38.7 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 85.0 85.7 86.4 87.0 88.3 89.4 89.6 89.2 88.4 87.4 85.0 81.8 HEAT CONTENT 35 27 31 27 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 682 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 92 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -14. -23. -32. -39. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 2. -8. -20. -32. -43. -50. -56. -62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 8. 3. -6. -20. -32. -44. -51. -58. -63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 62.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.32 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.87 Scaled RI index= 5.09 Prob of RI= 39.7% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)