* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 32 39 47 54 60 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 32 39 47 54 60 65 69 70 SHEAR (KTS) 20 12 9 11 10 4 1 4 3 2 3 6 14 SHEAR DIR 105 115 107 98 112 156 129 9 61 166 110 48 69 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 141 141 141 142 146 148 149 149 151 154 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 41 37 37 44 44 51 52 58 54 62 62 58 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 -4 0 -1 850 MB VORT 15 20 18 22 22 22 24 36 39 45 53 51 42 LAND (KM) 1530 1473 1381 1296 1220 1078 955 857 820 674 508 375 392 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.8 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.8 41.0 42.2 43.3 45.7 48.1 50.5 52.9 55.3 57.3 59.4 61.5 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 22 28 33 41 42 58 71 68 73 77 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 458 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 34. 41. 46. 50. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 34. 40. 45. 49. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.6% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)