* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 115 116 116 113 101 88 72 55 40 33 24 19 V (KT) LAND 110 115 116 116 95 50 34 29 28 28 28 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 8 17 18 18 19 14 19 17 16 10 10 SHEAR DIR 234 223 200 193 197 232 228 249 259 298 271 297 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 25.7 23.4 21.6 21.1 21.7 22.8 23.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 146 116 99 90 88 91 96 99 98 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -49.1 -48.7 -49.2 -48.1 -48.8 -49.2 -49.4 -49.8 -50.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 10 11 10 4 9 3 10 3 9 2 7 500-300 MB RH 59 57 56 59 60 57 52 47 47 41 41 40 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 8 7 3 0 8 3 2 6 3 5 -9 0 850 MB VORT 59 55 48 61 64 16 15 12 55 81 109 128 124 LAND (KM) 267 279 188 98 -22 -269 -452 -610 -712 -768 -768 -654 -406 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.6 30.8 33.0 34.6 36.1 37.1 37.6 37.6 38.2 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.8 86.5 87.2 87.8 88.9 89.4 89.2 88.5 87.5 86.2 83.7 80.1 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 31 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 93 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -15. -29. -43. -56. -66. -73. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -7. -4. -2. 1. 5. 8. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 3. -9. -22. -38. -54. -69. -76. -84. -90. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 6. 6. 3. -9. -22. -38. -55. -70. -77. -86. -91. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 30.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 37.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 3.93 Prob of RI= 10.9% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)