* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 35 42 47 52 55 57 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 35 42 47 52 55 57 57 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 13 10 3 4 9 6 7 10 16 13 SHEAR DIR 97 90 91 111 134 98 109 37 111 60 73 47 77 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 142 142 142 142 146 149 148 149 151 154 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 42 42 46 49 49 56 56 64 61 67 60 59 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -2 850 MB VORT 15 11 15 19 25 22 25 45 38 50 44 44 32 LAND (KM) 1508 1480 1403 1317 1236 1067 898 750 670 595 431 278 354 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.2 12.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.6 40.6 41.7 42.8 45.2 47.7 50.2 52.7 55.1 57.3 59.6 61.9 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 21 27 33 41 41 59 69 64 66 72 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 22. 27. 32. 35. 37. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)