* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 119 115 109 92 74 57 37 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 121 119 97 69 40 31 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 7 19 22 22 21 24 17 24 19 23 8 15 SHEAR DIR 246 221 199 204 247 219 253 254 300 309 320 325 325 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.4 24.3 21.7 20.4 20.4 21.8 22.8 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 146 134 105 91 86 86 91 96 99 99 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -49.2 -49.1 -49.5 -49.1 -49.0 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 6 8 4 8 4 9 5 9 4 500-300 MB RH 58 58 61 60 59 58 51 48 55 52 48 48 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 7 0 4 3 7 1 3 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 850 MB VORT 50 45 66 59 9 22 -31 12 11 52 43 52 21 LAND (KM) 280 188 115 -13 -138 -379 -583 -711 -800 -827 -763 -654 -492 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.3 29.4 30.7 31.9 33.9 35.7 37.0 37.9 38.1 37.9 38.2 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.5 87.2 87.8 88.4 89.4 89.9 89.4 88.3 87.0 85.7 83.7 81.1 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 26 18 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 645 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -12. -25. -42. -58. -73. -84. -92. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -13. -11. -8. -5. 0. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -4. -11. -27. -46. -62. -82. -97.-106.-113.-118. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -1. -5. -11. -28. -46. -63. -83. -98.-108.-115.-120. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 24.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 3.95 Prob of RI= 11.2% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)