* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 46 53 58 63 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 46 53 58 63 65 66 67 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 6 7 3 4 3 9 7 13 13 17 11 SHEAR DIR 105 94 113 155 132 94 39 99 92 95 78 83 79 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 143 142 142 146 149 149 149 151 151 154 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 43 43 47 48 50 54 60 62 68 65 63 58 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 24 30 31 24 26 27 38 47 58 59 45 46 34 LAND (KM) 1409 1324 1245 1154 1070 917 769 695 655 518 334 261 333 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.1 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.5 42.6 43.8 44.9 47.3 49.8 52.2 54.3 56.4 58.4 60.5 62.3 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 32 40 41 41 53 69 68 63 71 48 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 505 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 24. 32. 38. 44. 46. 47. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 33. 38. 43. 45. 46. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.2% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)