* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 121 115 107 85 67 50 33 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 125 99 69 51 34 29 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 20 22 17 28 16 19 15 16 12 14 5 SHEAR DIR 253 190 201 243 235 228 255 272 299 294 332 296 335 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.2 25.1 21.9 20.2 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.2 22.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 132 111 91 85 84 88 91 93 95 98 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.5 -49.3 -49.7 -49.5 -48.8 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 7 4 9 2 9 3 9 3 10 4 500-300 MB RH 61 61 60 57 60 51 53 53 46 51 52 52 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 3 4 4 5 10 8 0 1 0 -7 2 1 850 MB VORT 38 76 63 10 13 9 26 48 68 85 86 75 34 LAND (KM) 159 88 -14 -160 -313 -569 -733 -801 -822 -852 -818 -754 -665 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.7 30.8 32.1 33.3 35.6 37.2 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.7 38.7 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.1 87.9 88.6 89.3 89.8 89.4 88.6 87.7 86.7 85.7 84.7 83.6 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 16 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 14 CX,CY: -4/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 98 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -7. -20. -35. -53. -70. -86. -96.-105.-109. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -16. -13. -10. -5. -2. 4. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -8. -16. -37. -56. -72. -90.-103.-111.-116.-121. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -4. -10. -18. -40. -58. -75. -92.-105.-113.-118.-122. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 3.96 Prob of RI= 11.2% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)