* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 45 52 57 61 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 45 52 57 61 61 62 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 8 3 4 4 5 7 7 13 18 13 10 SHEAR DIR 91 98 129 118 75 111 1 136 61 84 60 96 63 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 143 142 143 148 149 148 149 151 155 160 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 44 48 47 54 58 60 64 64 68 63 62 57 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 15 22 24 24 28 31 42 40 55 41 31 21 17 LAND (KM) 1333 1239 1150 1062 985 832 723 672 573 401 312 433 316 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.6 13.4 14.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.3 43.4 44.7 45.9 48.3 50.8 53.2 55.7 57.8 59.9 62.1 64.3 HEAT CONTENT 26 36 44 42 44 41 66 70 64 72 72 74 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 30. 36. 41. 42. 43. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 32. 37. 41. 41. 42. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.63 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 5.06 Prob of RI= 38.7% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)