* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 94 89 85 71 57 43 34 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 77 55 43 36 30 28 28 28 28 29 29 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 26 21 14 18 20 17 17 13 16 7 11 3 SHEAR DIR 212 221 245 241 219 262 266 307 303 316 289 324 294 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 26.6 25.0 23.5 21.3 20.3 20.4 21.2 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 125 110 100 89 85 86 88 91 91 92 93 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.7 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -49.6 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 6 4 8 3 8 4 9 5 11 7 13 500-300 MB RH 63 65 59 64 57 50 57 57 56 58 53 55 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 7 5 2 10 14 1 -5 -3 -5 0 1 6 850 MB VORT 68 56 12 13 23 -20 31 48 71 65 64 17 20 LAND (KM) 62 -80 -211 -330 -452 -651 -800 -855 -846 -863 -855 -835 -817 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.3 32.6 33.7 34.7 36.5 37.9 38.4 38.3 38.4 39.2 39.1 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.5 88.0 88.5 88.9 89.0 88.4 87.9 87.4 86.7 85.7 85.5 85.9 HEAT CONTENT 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 15 CX,CY: -2/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 573 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 118 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 125 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -8. -18. -30. -44. -57. -69. -77. -84. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -6. -2. 2. 6. 9. 12. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -34. -47. -61. -70. -79. -84. -87. -89. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -16. -20. -34. -48. -62. -71. -80. -85. -89. -91. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 26.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 19.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)