* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 47 55 62 66 69 70 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 47 55 62 66 69 70 70 71 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 2 2 4 2 3 4 7 8 9 11 11 SHEAR DIR 104 134 161 41 100 270 334 313 20 357 5 326 339 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 141 141 145 148 149 151 154 159 160 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 44 50 52 53 53 58 57 64 63 63 60 58 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 850 MB VORT 15 24 24 28 26 36 44 55 34 19 8 -13 11 LAND (KM) 1310 1234 1165 1113 1069 970 926 904 776 629 599 460 205 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.6 43.6 44.7 45.7 48.0 50.1 52.5 54.8 57.1 59.2 61.5 63.8 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 39 38 43 43 54 72 71 68 86 80 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 41. 45. 46. 47. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 37. 41. 44. 45. 45. 46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.98 Prob of RI= 36.2% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)