* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * BOB 07/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 71 64 57 42 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 71 64 57 42 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 30 35 40 43 48 54 61 67 61 58 52 50 SHEAR DIR 273 268 267 272 273 271 271 270 277 275 279 276 270 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 123 123 123 125 127 129 132 133 135 133 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 500-300 MB RH 22 24 24 23 22 21 22 23 32 38 43 48 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 -6 -7 -5 2 4 24 21 21 14 6 2 850 MB VORT 6 0 0 2 5 -6 -3 -25 -19 -24 -5 -12 8 LAND (KM) 701 624 548 476 408 270 115 71 216 214 216 227 220 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.5 150.2 151.0 151.7 153.2 154.9 156.5 158.1 159.5 160.5 161.2 161.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 709 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -9. -15. -20. -31. -41. -51. -61. -67. -72. -77. -79. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -16. -24. -41. -56. -69. -83. -92.-100.-106.-109. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -9. -16. -23. -38. -52. -65. -77. -85. -92. -99.-106. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BOB 7/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 42.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.04 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 57.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.98 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)