* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DENNIS 07/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 39 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 15 22 25 V (KT) LAND 55 43 36 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 27 23 16 21 19 11 15 12 11 6 7 3 9 SHEAR DIR 219 237 231 223 226 251 264 285 275 334 274 274 211 SST (C) 27.7 25.9 24.0 22.4 20.7 19.3 19.0 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.1 21.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 118 103 94 87 82 81 82 84 87 88 88 87 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -49.5 -49.8 -50.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 6 3 7 8 2 10 4 10 3 12 5 15 500-300 MB RH 62 57 60 57 52 57 58 59 61 59 63 64 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 4 4 15 13 3 1 -5 0 1 4 5 1 850 MB VORT 48 24 15 23 16 32 55 61 75 51 47 24 54 LAND (KM) -117 -256 -408 -541 -674 -802 -851 -890 -911 -913 -891 -891 -925 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.0 34.3 35.5 36.6 37.8 38.3 38.7 38.9 38.9 38.7 38.7 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.3 88.9 89.3 89.7 89.6 89.2 88.6 87.8 87.3 87.2 87.2 87.2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 16 CX,CY: -4/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 560 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 116 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE -16. -26. -32. -37. -42. -43. -43. -39. -28. -17. -7. -2. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -16. -25. -31. -38. -47. -53. -58. -56. -49. -40. -33. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -16. -25. -31. -38. -47. -53. -58. -56. -49. -40. -33. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -65.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 24.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 52.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.24 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 2.91 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)