* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIVE 07/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 55 60 64 65 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 55 60 64 65 67 69 67 SHEAR (KTS) 11 5 5 5 3 8 2 13 7 15 6 10 5 SHEAR DIR 111 97 66 95 120 7 93 11 37 11 5 321 266 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 142 141 145 148 148 149 152 159 159 155 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 53 55 55 53 54 58 55 60 60 61 61 65 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -4 0 0 0 -2 0 850 MB VORT 22 21 25 28 33 44 51 52 36 29 14 12 11 LAND (KM) 1226 1146 1076 1018 962 842 775 738 540 463 412 104 22 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.7 14.8 16.2 17.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.6 44.7 45.8 46.9 49.3 51.7 54.4 57.0 59.8 62.5 65.0 67.0 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 41 45 45 47 66 71 73 74 84 86 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 34. 39. 41. 43. 45. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 35. 39. 40. 42. 44. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIVE 7/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.7% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)