* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DENNIS 07/11/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18 V (KT) LAND 0 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 15 20 22 22 16 16 11 14 4 6 3 1 SHEAR DIR 246 227 210 216 236 236 294 296 312 336 331 215 255 SST (C) 26.4 24.7 23.0 21.9 20.7 19.8 19.9 20.2 21.0 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 108 97 91 87 84 84 85 88 89 90 90 89 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 8 9 4 8 3 8 5 11 6 12 8 500-300 MB RH 58 60 56 50 45 45 50 49 51 51 58 64 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 10 19 14 10 -3 -3 -5 -4 0 1 0 2 850 MB VORT 11 13 22 -1 -9 37 47 51 29 45 6 21 24 LAND (KM) -222 -358 -496 -592 -688 -783 -834 -866 -868 -870 -871 -871 -881 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.9 35.1 36.0 36.8 37.7 38.2 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.5 88.9 89.1 89.3 89.0 88.5 88.0 87.4 87.1 87.0 87.0 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -18. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. PERSISTENCE -17. -28. -37. -44. -53. -53. -52. -48. -34. -20. -8. -3. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -16. -27. -34. -42. -51. -55. -56. -54. -42. -28. -17. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -16. -27. -34. -42. -51. -55. -56. -54. -42. -28. -17. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/11/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -60.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 23.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 71.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 2.20 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)