* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIVE 07/11/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 62 68 73 75 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 62 68 73 75 76 74 74 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 4 2 5 6 5 7 7 10 11 8 15 SHEAR DIR 114 89 128 202 313 355 333 335 333 326 302 301 288 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 142 142 145 148 149 152 157 159 154 149 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 500-300 MB RH 51 52 46 51 54 52 56 57 62 60 56 60 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 6 8 11 18 25 31 50 48 36 29 6 20 -9 LAND (KM) 1159 1084 1019 971 923 850 831 667 509 501 161 31 66 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.9 17.0 18.5 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 44.3 45.4 46.5 47.6 50.0 52.9 55.8 58.7 61.7 64.8 67.5 69.9 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 44 46 42 54 73 71 73 85 92 63 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 605 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 36. 42. 45. 47. 49. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 32. 38. 43. 45. 46. 47. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIVE 7/11/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.87 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 5.39 Prob of RI= 50.0% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)