* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIVE 07/11/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 60 66 70 74 75 77 77 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 60 66 70 74 75 77 46 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 2 6 9 3 6 5 7 2 9 8 11 SHEAR DIR 83 81 91 357 1 27 32 72 20 289 330 287 323 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 145 149 149 151 154 159 157 155 157 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 500-300 MB RH 49 48 53 58 54 54 58 58 56 56 57 50 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 850 MB VORT 5 8 15 21 22 24 32 35 27 11 11 2 15 LAND (KM) 1033 958 894 832 775 698 652 397 403 305 126 28 -33 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.2 13.1 14.4 15.6 16.8 18.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.4 46.6 47.9 49.1 51.8 54.9 58.2 61.5 64.5 67.1 69.7 72.0 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 45 40 45 70 66 76 65 96 71 73 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 591 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 34. 39. 44. 46. 48. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 30. 36. 40. 44. 45. 47. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIVE 7/11/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 5.28 Prob of RI= 46.1% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)