* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIVE 07/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 63 67 73 75 77 79 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 63 67 73 75 62 62 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 8 10 9 7 8 5 5 7 7 10 9 SHEAR DIR 65 37 356 352 360 352 30 18 36 302 316 303 311 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 145 148 149 149 152 155 159 155 155 160 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 49 52 61 57 57 62 59 59 56 51 54 45 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 850 MB VORT 23 32 41 40 29 26 35 26 21 2 14 -3 12 LAND (KM) 967 898 829 763 722 698 493 337 444 226 89 -45 36 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.6 14.7 16.0 17.3 18.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.4 46.6 47.7 49.2 50.6 53.8 56.9 59.8 62.6 65.5 68.8 71.7 74.5 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 38 45 59 71 69 75 74 83 71 9999 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 31. 37. 42. 45. 48. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 33. 37. 43. 45. 47. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIVE 7/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 5.05 Prob of RI= 38.5% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)