* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIVE 07/12/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 53 60 67 74 78 81 82 82 83 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 53 60 67 74 78 81 82 50 52 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 9 7 3 12 3 5 3 6 6 10 9 SHEAR DIR 251 314 343 341 306 311 338 349 219 295 223 281 260 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 146 149 149 151 154 159 157 155 157 160 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 47 53 54 51 51 54 52 56 53 49 44 47 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 850 MB VORT 40 45 41 35 42 44 27 18 4 1 0 3 -29 LAND (KM) 960 901 849 821 800 748 483 467 279 104 41 -41 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.6 48.8 50.2 51.6 54.6 58.1 61.3 64.3 67.1 69.6 72.4 75.3 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 43 54 66 73 73 80 96 74 77 9999 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 29. 36. 41. 45. 47. 48. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 32. 39. 43. 46. 47. 47. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIVE 7/12/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.63 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 5.45 Prob of RI= 52.0% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)