* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/12/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 61 71 80 86 89 91 89 87 84 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 61 71 80 86 89 91 55 53 50 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 6 2 3 2 6 7 13 7 15 17 19 SHEAR DIR 306 332 352 310 329 322 299 318 297 319 280 273 279 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 149 149 151 154 157 159 157 155 159 162 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 57 56 54 55 58 62 60 61 56 56 46 54 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 5 850 MB VORT 42 44 42 48 54 57 36 32 7 15 -18 -9 -37 LAND (KM) 867 825 801 779 791 573 457 379 89 0 -55 45 28 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.8 14.8 16.0 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.6 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.2 50.4 51.9 53.4 56.7 60.0 63.0 65.8 68.5 71.2 74.2 77.4 HEAT CONTENT 39 46 54 69 74 71 76 85 83 71 9999 66 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 29. 38. 44. 48. 50. 49. 47. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 16. 21. 31. 40. 46. 49. 51. 49. 47. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/12/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.83 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 5.19 Prob of RI= 43.1% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)