* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 69 81 89 97 101 104 105 104 103 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 69 81 89 97 101 104 92 100 99 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 1 4 6 3 5 4 3 5 0 5 7 SHEAR DIR 332 352 299 329 328 251 341 214 16 183 314 249 275 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 151 149 149 151 155 159 154 154 160 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 9 9 11 10 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 48 48 48 55 59 59 61 57 53 47 50 43 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 43 42 39 46 52 39 32 29 12 -5 -6 -27 -30 LAND (KM) 696 674 682 663 553 339 400 300 188 24 -13 78 191 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.3 14.3 15.3 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.9 53.3 54.8 56.3 59.2 62.7 65.9 68.7 71.5 74.2 76.9 79.7 HEAT CONTENT 58 73 71 69 67 77 71 80 66 81 99 86 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 32. 41. 49. 54. 58. 59. 59. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 24. 36. 44. 52. 56. 59. 60. 59. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 5.40 Prob of RI= 50.2% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)