* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 61 67 77 86 92 96 99 99 96 95 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 61 67 77 86 92 96 99 99 96 95 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 4 6 3 7 3 9 4 9 9 17 15 SHEAR DIR 312 234 291 316 5 295 343 297 339 287 290 303 304 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 149 151 151 159 155 152 155 160 164 162 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 9 8 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 500-300 MB RH 42 44 51 56 58 60 62 59 60 48 57 51 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -6 -5 850 MB VORT 44 46 51 57 58 42 43 31 20 7 15 -11 0 LAND (KM) 639 623 571 470 317 274 414 298 162 88 30 104 181 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 13.2 14.4 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.6 55.2 56.8 58.4 61.7 64.9 67.9 70.7 73.4 76.2 78.6 80.9 HEAT CONTENT 74 73 62 63 68 60 80 69 68 88 76 94 108 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 556 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 36. 44. 49. 52. 53. 52. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 22. 32. 41. 47. 51. 54. 54. 51. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.90 Scaled RI index= 5.66 Prob of RI= 59.0% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)