* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * BIRCHARD 07/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 74 62 50 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 85 74 62 50 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 42 43 44 45 49 51 52 48 48 47 45 39 36 SHEAR DIR 277 278 274 272 267 264 267 261 260 261 267 261 266 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 123 124 125 126 128 131 133 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -55.0 -55.9 -56.2 -56.9 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 17 15 17 18 21 28 33 38 44 46 53 57 66 MO FLX (M/S/D) -24 -21 -15 -3 9 8 2 2 -1 0 0 1 5 850 MB VORT 17 -3 -7 0 1 -3 -3 -30 -50 -74 -63 -62 -39 LAND (KM) 614 525 440 355 285 164 169 238 282 241 219 306 463 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.4 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.5 151.4 152.4 153.4 155.1 156.6 157.9 159.1 160.3 161.4 162.7 164.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 682 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR -7. -16. -25. -34. -48. -57. -63. -66. -69. -72. -73. -73. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -9. -22. -34. -47. -67. -81. -90. -96.-100.-104.-106.-106. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -21. -33. -45. -64. -76. -84. -89. -93. -96.-100.-103. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BIRCHARD 7/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 44.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 28.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 54.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 2.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.79 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)