* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 63 71 81 88 95 100 101 100 98 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 63 71 81 88 95 100 101 100 98 SHEAR (KTS) 4 1 3 2 2 8 1 8 4 7 11 10 14 SHEAR DIR 93 344 311 4 176 339 296 360 246 298 280 301 288 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 151 151 152 155 152 152 157 160 159 160 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 8 10 10 11 11 13 11 13 500-300 MB RH 46 50 52 55 57 55 61 57 55 53 55 59 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -3 3 850 MB VORT 46 54 59 64 56 46 50 40 24 19 6 5 0 LAND (KM) 566 519 431 281 165 255 368 315 207 122 39 345 200 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 13.0 13.9 14.9 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.4 57.0 58.6 60.1 63.1 66.4 69.5 72.4 75.4 78.5 81.5 84.4 HEAT CONTENT 71 57 63 62 73 49 71 52 76 99 91 99 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 458 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 36. 43. 50. 55. 55. 55. 54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 36. 43. 50. 55. 56. 55. 53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 2.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 1.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 24.7% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)