* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 52 55 57 57 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 52 55 57 57 59 58 56 SHEAR (KTS) 5 1 4 10 11 15 21 30 26 26 20 22 20 SHEAR DIR 39 355 215 242 261 276 253 257 242 245 229 232 214 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 120 123 125 133 138 141 146 151 146 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 61 55 54 49 51 44 50 50 54 55 50 51 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 3 2 0 -10 3 1 8 5 2 850 MB VORT 67 66 82 98 98 83 95 87 73 60 53 45 38 LAND (KM) 1420 1595 1771 1948 2043 1873 1763 1705 1635 1456 1258 1072 995 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.5 21.6 22.8 23.8 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.4 34.0 35.7 37.3 40.6 43.7 46.7 49.5 52.2 54.6 57.2 59.3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 3 6 19 29 30 35 42 31 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 35. 34. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 34. 33. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 26.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.29 Prob of RI= 15.3% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)