* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 66 75 84 91 97 102 102 102 99 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 66 75 84 91 97 102 102 102 99 SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 6 0 3 5 7 4 8 7 14 11 16 SHEAR DIR 276 326 357 105 330 336 319 346 316 300 322 304 301 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 151 149 155 152 151 154 159 157 159 155 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 8 10 10 12 12 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 45 48 53 56 57 61 59 57 50 50 55 58 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -7 -2 -1 850 MB VORT 48 53 57 49 42 55 36 35 21 19 -7 -4 -17 LAND (KM) 523 445 286 165 186 322 321 267 217 73 285 290 77 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.2 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.2 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 57.0 58.5 60.1 61.7 65.1 68.2 71.2 74.3 77.6 81.0 83.9 86.6 HEAT CONTENT 58 62 62 73 53 72 67 58 81 93 98 89 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 522 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 20. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 38. 44. 49. 53. 52. 51. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 34. 41. 47. 52. 52. 52. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.98 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 4.42 Prob of RI= 17.4% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)