* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 53 57 59 60 59 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 53 57 59 60 59 57 53 SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 8 10 10 15 22 21 23 23 30 28 26 SHEAR DIR 22 272 219 249 273 254 254 263 238 229 240 245 251 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 123 125 128 135 139 142 145 146 143 138 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 59 54 52 52 52 50 53 56 56 56 52 56 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 4 1 8 850 MB VORT 66 78 96 102 89 95 92 64 35 27 -1 -16 -50 LAND (KM) 1632 1798 1964 2029 1934 1782 1687 1660 1665 1595 1481 1430 1446 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.9 23.6 25.5 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 32.7 34.3 35.8 37.3 38.7 41.7 44.2 46.6 48.8 50.9 52.6 54.2 55.3 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 4 6 8 31 33 33 38 30 24 21 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 575 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 74 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 27. 32. 35. 36. 35. 33. 30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 34. 32. 28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)