* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 62 72 81 89 95 101 102 104 102 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 62 72 81 89 95 101 102 104 77 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 1 1 5 2 7 3 5 6 6 10 9 SHEAR DIR 286 327 207 349 23 223 5 232 319 278 316 275 311 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 148 151 154 151 151 155 159 157 160 157 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 10 10 12 12 13 11 14 11 500-300 MB RH 51 53 56 57 59 60 58 54 53 49 57 57 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 850 MB VORT 68 72 62 57 61 60 54 39 35 21 -8 1 -14 LAND (KM) 395 238 133 178 222 332 289 276 169 139 350 206 -79 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.5 19.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 59.0 60.5 62.1 63.6 66.7 69.8 72.8 75.9 79.1 82.5 85.5 88.2 HEAT CONTENT 61 66 65 46 46 69 50 71 95 89 93 86 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 36. 44. 50. 56. 57. 59. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 36. 44. 50. 56. 57. 59. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.98 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.7% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)