* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 65 73 81 87 93 97 100 102 102 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 65 73 81 87 93 97 100 102 61 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 3 6 5 7 4 10 5 10 7 7 2 SHEAR DIR 303 267 307 347 23 286 290 272 262 300 277 277 281 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 148 149 148 149 154 157 157 162 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 500-300 MB RH 48 56 63 62 63 63 60 55 59 59 62 64 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 1 -2 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT 62 56 54 60 68 56 57 51 50 29 36 22 30 LAND (KM) 225 89 122 167 224 189 239 274 218 232 179 57 -92 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.7 62.4 64.1 65.8 69.0 72.2 75.6 78.9 82.1 84.8 87.1 88.9 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 38 44 54 50 61 90 79 78 91 65 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 38. 44. 48. 50. 52. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 32. 37. 43. 47. 50. 52. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.61 Prob of RI= 22.1% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)