* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 49 51 52 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 49 51 52 54 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 11 11 11 17 15 21 18 23 23 12 7 SHEAR DIR 263 268 280 281 277 264 257 233 221 222 228 269 328 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 128 131 134 138 139 139 141 137 134 131 125 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -55.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 60 55 53 51 48 51 52 50 51 43 40 31 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 0 3 3 8 5 2 3 7 0 13 -4 850 MB VORT 97 94 80 80 76 69 54 17 2 -26 -38 -58 -89 LAND (KM) 1986 1977 1902 1846 1800 1746 1766 1834 1768 1646 1576 1559 1588 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.9 19.4 21.0 22.8 24.4 26.1 27.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.4 38.7 40.0 41.3 43.4 45.6 47.5 49.4 51.2 52.9 54.2 55.0 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 8 17 27 31 27 29 25 18 11 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 725 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 29. 30. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 3.88 Prob of RI= 10.3% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)