* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 60 64 71 79 86 91 94 95 95 94 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 60 64 71 79 86 91 94 95 75 50 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 9 4 7 8 4 7 8 11 12 9 9 SHEAR DIR 267 300 320 12 255 304 225 297 247 289 272 283 264 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 148 151 151 149 151 155 159 157 160 157 162 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 11 9 10 11 13 11 13 10 14 500-300 MB RH 55 63 62 72 68 64 61 59 61 65 63 70 66 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 4 4 1 1 3 1 2 6 3 7 1 850 MB VORT 53 46 57 62 49 45 52 37 22 13 11 4 -1 LAND (KM) 89 127 166 245 268 233 321 211 192 295 231 -70 22 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.2 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 62.2 63.8 65.4 67.0 70.0 73.2 76.3 79.5 82.5 85.3 88.1 90.7 HEAT CONTENT 58 40 42 57 65 48 72 96 86 95 89 9999 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 36. 41. 43. 45. 45. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 14. 21. 29. 36. 41. 44. 45. 45. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.0% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)