* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 96 102 107 113 119 123 121 118 112 105 98 V (KT) LAND 80 89 96 102 107 113 119 123 121 118 112 67 56 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 5 7 7 4 7 9 14 14 17 15 20 SHEAR DIR 312 338 335 281 314 312 317 310 314 301 309 298 314 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 151 152 152 149 152 157 159 157 157 154 160 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 63 63 63 64 63 57 53 55 53 60 62 64 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 2 4 0 850 MB VORT 40 47 48 40 31 36 28 25 1 3 -13 -13 -19 LAND (KM) 139 183 234 295 273 272 250 100 182 345 134 -95 106 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.1 64.7 66.3 67.9 71.2 74.3 77.1 80.0 83.0 86.1 88.8 91.3 HEAT CONTENT 55 43 58 68 70 64 79 95 95 87 82 9999 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 607 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 21. 25. 32. 37. 41. 39. 36. 31. 25. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 9. 16. 22. 27. 33. 39. 43. 41. 38. 32. 25. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 30.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 16.6% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)