* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 88 90 94 98 101 101 100 98 95 92 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 88 90 94 98 101 101 100 58 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 14 14 13 15 9 11 13 15 11 13 12 SHEAR DIR 300 269 250 261 269 238 263 257 258 265 274 271 302 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 154 152 151 152 157 159 159 154 154 159 164 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 12 10 10 11 11 13 10 14 11 13 10 500-300 MB RH 65 63 68 68 64 57 56 54 59 59 61 60 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 4 3 4 4 8 2 1 2 5 9 8 7 850 MB VORT 44 43 42 35 28 31 24 4 -11 -14 -26 -20 -10 LAND (KM) 188 252 300 273 256 271 108 211 260 43 -20 159 389 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.6 16.8 18.1 19.5 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 64.8 66.3 68.1 69.8 73.3 76.8 80.3 83.7 86.7 89.2 91.5 93.6 HEAT CONTENT 43 62 68 70 49 74 93 96 85 78 9999 45 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 19. 19. 17. 15. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. 12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 71.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.5% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)