* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 49 49 49 49 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 49 49 49 49 49 45 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 10 14 18 15 16 21 25 15 10 10 12 SHEAR DIR 278 253 247 260 266 231 228 201 233 249 314 360 340 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 139 141 143 145 142 137 132 123 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 500-300 MB RH 53 52 53 53 50 50 52 45 44 38 37 44 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 8 6 -4 850 MB VORT 82 85 88 77 64 62 38 7 -31 -73 -124 -119 -120 LAND (KM) 1657 1631 1610 1591 1583 1647 1697 1641 1544 1546 1641 1809 1909 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.9 20.8 22.9 25.0 27.2 29.1 30.2 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.0 43.1 44.2 45.2 47.1 49.0 50.7 52.6 54.1 54.7 53.2 49.9 HEAT CONTENT 22 30 33 37 35 32 35 27 16 9 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 751 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 26. 26. 26. 25. 24. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 11.7% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)