* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 103 106 108 110 113 114 112 109 105 101 97 V (KT) LAND 95 100 103 106 108 110 113 114 112 85 69 65 61 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 15 13 13 13 11 12 14 11 12 12 9 SHEAR DIR 269 247 262 270 254 259 250 276 258 273 285 296 300 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 151 151 155 160 157 160 152 155 164 162 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 63 66 66 64 59 55 60 55 61 60 61 57 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 4 4 6 4 4 4 9 4 5 7 5 850 MB VORT 43 41 32 26 30 19 12 -8 0 -19 -19 -22 6 LAND (KM) 277 323 290 289 270 179 62 357 232 -73 101 330 228 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.5 17.9 18.9 19.5 20.5 21.9 22.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.7 68.4 70.1 71.8 75.2 78.8 82.2 85.2 88.0 90.5 93.0 95.4 HEAT CONTENT 69 69 70 56 70 89 84 94 91 9999 35 66 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 14. 14. 13. 10. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 15. 12. 10. 6. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 17. 14. 10. 6. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.2% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)