* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 52 55 57 59 61 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 52 55 57 59 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 6 11 16 17 10 11 8 16 18 19 9 8 8 SHEAR DIR 256 246 263 277 279 266 224 210 217 244 273 288 353 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 139 142 143 148 152 152 149 151 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 50 49 50 47 49 48 48 43 43 37 42 37 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 1 0 0 4 -2 4 4 9 11 8 3 850 MB VORT 66 73 69 62 48 46 44 8 -2 -49 -75 -118 -138 LAND (KM) 1638 1600 1561 1538 1529 1544 1473 1344 1133 967 888 897 949 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.6 19.9 21.1 22.3 23.6 24.8 25.9 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 43.1 44.2 45.4 46.6 48.7 51.0 53.2 55.7 58.3 60.7 62.5 63.8 HEAT CONTENT 27 32 35 37 40 41 47 44 34 38 30 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 658 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 37. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.1% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)