* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 109 108 106 103 101 102 99 96 95 93 92 V (KT) LAND 105 108 109 108 106 103 101 102 99 59 57 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 15 17 22 19 17 12 18 9 9 6 1 SHEAR DIR 251 263 271 257 240 258 243 270 252 278 238 310 227 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 151 152 157 159 159 157 154 160 164 162 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 10 12 12 12 12 10 13 10 13 10 14 500-300 MB RH 61 57 61 62 59 58 60 62 67 66 65 61 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 6 8 5 11 14 16 5 -2 7 -3 8 1 850 MB VORT 46 36 38 54 47 35 25 5 11 -1 4 25 51 LAND (KM) 297 256 256 279 266 100 226 343 114 -65 164 354 194 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.5 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 68.5 70.2 72.0 73.8 77.3 80.4 83.4 86.3 89.1 91.7 93.9 95.9 HEAT CONTENT 67 67 52 68 76 93 93 89 79 9999 45 79 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 11. 9. 7. 4. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -16. -23. -27. -26. -26. -24. -21. -16. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.17 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 3.71 Prob of RI= 8.2% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)