* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 49 52 54 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 49 52 54 57 59 59 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 17 16 13 13 17 18 14 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 256 266 275 282 285 247 207 227 235 256 282 270 260 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 142 143 146 151 152 149 149 151 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.7 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 500-300 MB RH 48 48 45 44 40 45 41 39 40 44 37 44 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 -4 0 7 -3 13 1 -2 6 5 -3 -4 850 MB VORT 61 63 63 51 38 40 20 -11 -52 -54 -93 -119 -144 LAND (KM) 1591 1556 1534 1537 1548 1526 1440 1225 1037 920 904 941 973 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.2 19.4 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.5 25.7 26.6 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.2 45.4 46.6 47.7 49.9 52.2 54.6 57.2 59.8 61.9 63.3 64.2 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 37 39 37 46 44 38 34 35 29 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 3.97 Prob of RI= 11.4% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)