* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 109 107 104 102 103 99 97 96 94 91 V (KT) LAND 115 115 113 109 107 104 102 103 79 71 69 67 64 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 13 21 16 15 17 14 15 8 10 8 11 SHEAR DIR 261 263 236 234 247 230 279 243 274 285 296 342 285 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 152 154 159 157 160 151 155 162 165 160 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 500-300 MB RH 63 60 64 61 61 64 59 59 57 58 60 54 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 3 4 1 1 3 4 4 4 2 3 2 850 MB VORT 39 38 57 43 31 29 7 6 -9 2 3 11 2 LAND (KM) 250 244 266 275 207 91 340 222 -76 98 279 366 113 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.4 18.6 19.8 20.9 21.9 22.8 23.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 70.0 71.6 73.4 75.2 78.5 81.5 84.7 87.9 90.4 92.2 94.2 96.4 HEAT CONTENT 68 50 66 73 89 85 97 96 9999 34 59 51 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 8. 4. 1. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -12. -16. -22. -26. -25. -24. -22. -18. -14. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -14. -17. -18. -21. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -12. -16. -18. -19. -21. -24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 3.67 Prob of RI= 7.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)