* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 48 50 53 56 58 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 48 50 53 56 58 57 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 16 16 11 9 15 19 21 14 8 7 8 SHEAR DIR 266 275 285 287 283 219 220 222 251 261 267 280 259 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 146 148 152 152 149 151 151 149 151 152 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 500-300 MB RH 48 45 46 42 45 44 39 38 37 42 38 44 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 0 6 5 -3 14 -6 8 3 1 -1 -5 850 MB VORT 63 63 50 37 32 34 -5 -31 -49 -65 -100 -114 -145 LAND (KM) 1552 1536 1534 1546 1559 1496 1391 1183 1002 890 851 861 875 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.9 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.2 25.9 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.4 46.5 47.6 48.6 50.7 52.7 55.1 57.6 60.0 62.0 63.5 64.8 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 39 38 40 44 45 36 36 35 29 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 694 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 26. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 28. 31. 33. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.63 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 3.93 Prob of RI= 10.9% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)