* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 112 109 107 104 101 100 95 93 89 89 85 V (KT) LAND 115 114 112 109 107 104 101 100 72 70 66 66 52 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 21 21 18 20 15 16 13 14 15 9 16 SHEAR DIR 262 248 240 253 264 244 257 255 281 275 336 283 314 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 154 157 159 159 154 152 160 164 160 159 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -50.8 -51.7 -50.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 13 11 14 12 13 11 13 10 500-300 MB RH 58 63 65 60 62 63 65 63 59 56 49 48 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 5 3 11 14 6 8 -5 8 8 7 0 3 850 MB VORT 30 52 47 29 29 22 7 -4 -18 -8 -15 0 -6 LAND (KM) 233 239 322 247 146 226 312 55 44 283 320 114 -32 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 25.3 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.1 71.9 73.6 75.3 77.0 80.4 83.9 86.8 89.2 91.7 94.3 96.2 97.7 HEAT CONTENT 50 62 74 88 98 93 90 77 22 55 26 49 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 7. 3. 0. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -7. -13. -18. -26. -29. -29. -27. -25. -23. -17. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -22. -25. -25. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -20. -22. -26. -26. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.36 Prob of RI= 16.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)