* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 45 50 52 54 56 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 45 50 52 54 56 58 56 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 17 11 10 16 15 16 15 12 6 2 5 SHEAR DIR 269 280 283 269 245 199 218 224 247 247 268 318 317 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 148 151 152 148 148 149 145 143 141 138 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 47 45 43 47 49 44 42 35 39 36 39 38 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 1 4 3 0 0 9 0 3 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 63 55 45 41 36 16 -5 -49 -67 -107 -141 -155 -140 LAND (KM) 1532 1542 1559 1584 1537 1446 1272 1118 1031 1012 1048 1107 1144 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.3 27.3 28.1 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.8 47.9 49.0 50.1 52.2 54.3 56.6 58.9 60.9 62.3 63.1 63.3 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 36 42 43 43 32 31 28 21 21 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 695 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 3.74 Prob of RI= 8.6% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)