* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 90 91 92 93 92 88 88 88 88 88 87 V (KT) LAND 95 91 90 91 92 93 92 73 78 78 78 66 40 SHEAR (KTS) 14 20 18 17 16 16 14 19 11 13 7 17 3 SHEAR DIR 274 249 259 257 238 263 243 270 282 292 288 286 337 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.9 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 154 157 159 157 160 151 155 165 162 159 157 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 500-300 MB RH 65 64 61 66 63 57 59 55 57 56 52 51 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 11 12 3 -1 2 6 0 8 6 7 7 0 850 MB VORT 37 35 25 21 10 -12 -2 -25 -15 -9 -4 -20 -1 LAND (KM) 224 322 241 133 113 362 177 -19 179 448 180 -31 -238 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.7 20.2 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.8 26.3 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.8 75.6 77.2 78.8 81.7 84.8 87.8 90.6 93.1 95.4 97.6 99.8 HEAT CONTENT 61 75 90 96 85 94 100 48 41 51 51 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 690 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 14. 13. 12. 10. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -9. -12. -18. -20. -21. -19. -17. -14. -11. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.1% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)