* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 45 49 51 52 53 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 45 49 51 52 53 53 51 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 19 13 13 18 18 20 14 9 10 8 9 SHEAR DIR 263 266 255 254 225 231 233 250 284 311 341 16 54 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 149 149 146 142 141 138 134 134 137 141 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.6 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 46 46 47 49 48 46 42 38 39 39 37 37 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 1 4 0 1 0 10 4 -1 -9 -9 -1 850 MB VORT 54 57 50 39 36 1 -6 -50 -78 -112 -155 -150 -127 LAND (KM) 1585 1603 1618 1589 1570 1435 1327 1287 1292 1316 1309 1288 1232 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.6 26.8 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.8 48.9 50.0 51.0 52.7 54.5 56.0 57.1 57.6 57.7 57.4 57.4 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 41 37 35 34 30 23 18 12 12 17 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 3.68 Prob of RI= 7.9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)