* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 96 95 93 91 87 83 83 83 80 79 77 V (KT) LAND 100 97 96 95 93 91 77 70 70 70 67 41 31 SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 16 20 28 21 21 15 15 11 16 14 20 SHEAR DIR 246 264 257 251 249 259 260 259 265 287 275 289 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.8 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 155 159 159 159 152 154 164 164 159 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 14 13 11 14 10 13 10 13 9 14 500-300 MB RH 67 59 68 63 58 63 61 62 60 56 52 48 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 7 8 2 2 6 3 11 9 2 -2 1 0 850 MB VORT 42 34 41 21 13 5 0 -14 0 -21 -10 -16 -24 LAND (KM) 323 282 190 146 211 290 -16 111 318 307 30 -152 -317 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.8 17.6 19.3 20.9 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.8 26.8 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 75.2 77.0 78.6 80.2 83.4 87.1 90.1 92.4 94.6 96.9 98.9 100.6 HEAT CONTENT 71 86 101 93 88 84 71 32 62 35 34 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 6. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -11. -17. -25. -29. -28. -26. -24. -22. -18. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -18. -17. -19. -20. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -17. -17. -20. -21. -23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 3.96 Prob of RI= 11.3% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)