* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 48 48 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 48 48 48 47 45 SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 17 17 16 18 16 15 12 13 18 14 13 SHEAR DIR 259 262 248 240 230 242 238 283 332 336 21 23 52 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 148 146 142 138 133 128 125 126 128 128 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 -55.7 -54.8 -55.3 -54.9 -55.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 45 48 53 50 48 46 42 43 43 43 37 41 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 6 8 6 14 14 2 8 -13 -5 -1 -11 18 850 MB VORT 45 42 30 22 6 -11 -43 -63 -103 -111 -121 -110 -77 LAND (KM) 1633 1652 1618 1576 1497 1391 1362 1375 1437 1528 1601 1656 1712 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.7 24.3 26.0 27.4 28.4 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.8 50.0 51.1 52.1 53.9 55.4 56.6 56.9 56.0 54.6 53.3 52.2 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 35 33 33 26 18 10 5 3 5 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 35.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.06 Scaled RI index= 3.56 Prob of RI= 6.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)