* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 117 114 112 107 104 103 100 100 98 94 91 V (KT) LAND 115 118 117 114 112 107 82 69 66 66 64 38 30 SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 16 23 18 20 16 10 9 5 10 6 8 SHEAR DIR 262 259 252 253 265 254 275 233 299 295 339 312 305 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 159 157 160 152 157 165 164 159 157 159 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 12 11 500-300 MB RH 65 68 68 63 62 63 62 62 59 60 52 62 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 9 6 3 6 4 10 14 5 5 4 0 0 850 MB VORT 36 40 39 24 22 5 -10 2 -10 9 5 17 19 LAND (KM) 305 225 185 215 342 277 -66 98 365 244 9 -245 -465 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.3 20.6 21.8 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 76.6 78.2 79.9 81.5 84.8 87.9 90.7 93.2 95.4 97.5 99.8 102.1 HEAT CONTENT 85 96 97 81 86 93 9999 35 67 50 35 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 6. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -14. -18. -25. -28. -25. -22. -18. -14. -10. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. 0. -5. -9. -10. -13. -14. -16. -20. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 2. -1. -3. -8. -11. -12. -15. -15. -17. -21. -24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 3.41 Prob of RI= 4.6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)