* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 44 46 46 47 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 44 46 46 47 48 47 SHEAR (KTS) 26 26 22 20 22 17 19 17 15 10 9 6 6 SHEAR DIR 255 245 246 238 239 247 247 260 291 291 291 307 209 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 145 143 138 134 127 124 124 127 131 134 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.5 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 44 51 50 48 46 50 47 48 41 36 31 30 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 15 16 22 15 15 18 3 -1 0 -4 -7 4 850 MB VORT 30 26 21 10 -4 -31 -72 -97 -127 -120 -110 -84 -77 LAND (KM) 1680 1652 1595 1528 1472 1407 1409 1469 1562 1632 1655 1620 1554 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.6 25.4 27.0 28.4 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.1 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.8 50.9 51.8 52.7 54.4 55.7 56.4 56.0 54.6 53.4 53.1 53.3 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 32 32 25 20 11 4 2 3 6 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 23. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 35.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.06 Scaled RI index= 3.29 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)