* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 124 120 117 108 103 97 91 88 85 83 79 V (KT) LAND 125 127 124 120 117 108 67 67 60 57 43 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 22 20 19 22 16 19 15 16 12 12 12 SHEAR DIR 259 246 241 260 256 254 267 270 300 296 315 276 306 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 157 157 159 152 159 165 160 159 157 159 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.0 -51.5 -50.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 12 14 11 12 9 13 10 16 9 500-300 MB RH 68 62 63 64 64 65 62 64 60 56 54 55 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 9 8 4 7 8 4 0 0 8 3 -4 1 850 MB VORT 23 28 41 23 6 11 -24 -16 -31 2 7 3 -9 LAND (KM) 211 159 199 318 310 146 -33 201 394 136 -81 -336 -437 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.7 21.1 22.5 23.8 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 78.1 79.6 81.3 82.9 86.0 88.7 91.4 93.9 96.2 98.3 100.8 103.6 HEAT CONTENT 96 95 81 86 92 84 9999 47 51 44 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 601 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 7. 2. -2. -6. -12. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -9. -16. -21. -31. -34. -34. -32. -31. -27. -21. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -3. -7. -16. -22. -27. -34. -37. -39. -41. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. -1. -5. -8. -17. -22. -28. -34. -37. -40. -42. -46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.04 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 3.83 Prob of RI= 9.7% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)