* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 131 127 122 109 103 97 90 85 82 79 77 V (KT) LAND 135 135 131 127 122 91 74 68 61 56 35 29 28 SHEAR (KTS) 13 23 19 17 21 22 17 18 15 20 12 17 13 SHEAR DIR 244 247 267 260 259 281 264 294 288 306 285 292 280 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 157 157 160 152 157 165 164 159 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 11 14 12 12 12 12 13 14 11 11 500-300 MB RH 64 59 60 64 62 64 63 55 53 52 50 53 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 4 0 0 -3 3 -1 4 6 3 2 0 850 MB VORT 21 15 4 0 8 -12 -34 -30 -20 -20 -4 2 0 LAND (KM) 158 191 321 320 300 -43 112 374 244 5 -248 -482 -363 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.5 21.9 22.9 23.8 24.5 25.2 25.7 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.7 81.3 82.9 84.5 87.7 90.8 93.3 95.4 97.7 100.1 102.4 104.4 HEAT CONTENT 97 81 86 92 92 9999 37 67 53 36 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 553 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -7. -13. -20. -28. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -16. -22. -32. -35. -36. -34. -34. -30. -25. -19. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -7. -12. -24. -30. -37. -43. -48. -51. -55. -58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -4. -8. -13. -26. -32. -38. -45. -50. -53. -56. -58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 23.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 3.84 Prob of RI= 9.8% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)